Racing's worst four-letter word

Disclaimer: The following blog is not for those race fans who are faint of heart or superstitious when it comes to talking about the "R" word on race day. If this is you, I recommend that you click the little red "X" in the upper right-hand corner of your screen or direct your browser window elsewhere. However, if you're one of those who unloads your green #13 from your hauler on race night while munching on peanuts and taking part in casual chat with fellow racers about the dark clouds and swirling winds moving in, by all means, read on...

While preparing for this weekend's season opener at Independence, like any curious race fan, I've been keeping my eye on the weather forecast. Having noticed that the forecast hasn't changed over the past 48 hours or so, I admit, the chance of opening the 2010 season this Saturday seems slim, at best. That got me thinking, "We always get rain at some point during the season that forces us to cancel (with the lone exception of rain-free 1997), but when exactly HAVE we rained out at Independence?" (To make it easier, for purposes of this blog, all cancellations are referred to as rainouts, although Nick Wroten reminded me of a night in 1998 when racing was canceled after the electricity went out during heat races.)

I opened my file of results from Independence and set out to determine the rainout trends of the past 43 years. While most all of it was interesting, there were a few items that literally astounded me.

To set this up, there are a total of 14 different calendars; seven that include leap years and seven that do not. These calendars rotate on a yearly basis as I'm sure you're all aware. Afterall, I would assume that most everyone knows our birthdays normally fall one day later in the week each passing year except when that pesky leap year messes things up and we go from a Friday birthday one year to Sunday the following year. In short, due to the four-year span between leap years, combined with the seven days of the week, the cycle of calendars repeats itself every 28 years. That means 1982 is the same as 2010 and 1983 will repeat itself in 2011, etc. Yes, dust off your parachute pants and Members Only jackets and don't forget to "phone home" as you try to outrun Roscoe P. Coltrain...

The reason I bring this up is because I went back and listed every scheduled race date at Independence from the first Saturday of May through the final Saturday in August from 1967 through the 1985 season. The first April race at Independence was on April 26, 1986. From 1986 through last season, I included dates from that final week in April through the end of August. There have been years since 1986 that racing was scheduled a week prior to the final Saturday in April, however I wasn't confident that I had all those rainouts so I omitted them from my plan.

In short, the 28-year calendar cycle has repeated itself approximately one-and-a-half times since Independence began racing, meaning every date from May 1 through August 31 has appeared anywhere from five to seven times in the last 43 years. Every date will have had an equal number of eight appearances on the Independence schedule following the completion of the 2022 season, assuming the current scheduling pattern remains in place. This is with the exception, of course, of August 31 during years the Late Models have been I.M.C.A. sanctioned. Traditionally, the points season for Late Models ends during the last full weekend in August, meaning championship night is generally scheduled for August 24 when race day would otherwise be scheduled on the 31st.

With that said, I broke down every date of every year and entered events that were scheduled for those dates, along with events that were rained out on those dates. Here are some samples of what I found. Remember, these numbers include only weekly Saturday night racing at Independence.

* Of the 123 calendar days from May 1 to August 31, there have been 35 calendar days that the races have never been canceled in Independence. Of those 35 days, two are in May, nine are in June, 14 are in July and 10 are in August.

* There is not a single date that has rained out every year it's been scheduled. Independence has raced at some point in time on every calendar day from May 1 to August 31 over the past 43 years. The date with the worst track record as far as rain goes has been May 7. The races have rained out four out of five Saturdays at Independence. Coincidentally, the only time Indee has seen races on May 7 was the last time they were scheduled, in 2005. Fear not, May 7 is not a race date in 2010. We can try to battle those odds when it reappears on the schedule in 2011. The only other dates that have had more rain than racing have been May 22 and June 2. Those two dates are each only 2-for-6 when it comes to beating the rain. All other 120 race dates have had at least 50% of their shows completed over the years. On a side note, the April 26 and May 31 "rainouts" in 2008 weren't really a result of rain on race day, rather a result of the spring storms that destroyed the grandstands. If we'd have been able to race on those days, we'd be a perfect 4-for-4 on April 26 and 7-for-7 on May 31 (assuming, of course, it didn't actually rain on either of those days).

The reason I started doing the rainout research was because it has seemed especially apparent in recent years that half of the first half of the season is ultimately rained out while we get away (nearly) scot free after mid-season championships. Here are some numbers relating to the time of year we get rained out:

* Of the 163 rainouts over the past 43 years, a whopping 64 (39.3%) of them have come in May. As for the rest of the summer, 35 (21.5%) have come in June, 25 (15.3%) in July and 29 (17.8%) in August. The remaining 10 (6.1%) came in the final week of April.
* When breaking down the season in half (and not counting the April dates), 64.7% of all rainouts have come in May and June, while just 35.3% have come in July and August.
* To expand it a little more, consider the end of June as the cutoff for the first half of the season. In track history, only three times has a season gone rain-free throughout the first half of the season - 1981, 1985, 1997. If you limit it to just May and June, you can add 1992 and 1999 to that list as April's events rained out that year while May and June went without a rainout. By contrast, there have been 11 seasons that both July and August have run without a single cancellation. Those years were 1975, 1976, 1984, 1986, 1991, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2005, 2006 and 2008.

If you take a look at what we can expect in 2010, here is an historical breakdown of each race date on this year's schedule and how they have fared in the past:

April 24: Raced 1 time, rained out 2 times (Raced 33% of the time, the only time being 1993 if you caught this week's trivia question on the facebook page! Ironically, although we raced on April 24, 1993, that season tied for the record with the most rainouts ever in a single season at Independence. Of 19 scheduled race nights, eight were canceled that year due to weather. This does not include the nine cancellations due to the storm damage from 2008.)
May 1: Raced 4 of 7 nights, including the last two times scheduled (57.1% overall)
May 8: Raced all 6 nights (100%)
May 15: Raced 4 of 6, including the last two (67%)
May 22: Raced 2 of 6 and rained out 4 of the last 5 times scheduled (33%)
May 29: Raced 3 of 6 (50%)
June 5: Raced 6 of 6 (100%)
June 12: Raced 5 of 6, including the last 5 straight (83.3%)
June 19: Raced 6 of 6 (100%)
June 26: Raced 5 of 6, including the last 2 straight (83.3%)
July 3: Raced 4 of 6, although the last 2 have rained out (66.7%)
July 10: Raced 3 of 6, including the last 2 (50%)
July 17: Raced 4 of 6, including the last 2 (66.7%)
July 24: Raced 6 of 6 (100%)
July 31: Raced 5 of 6, including the last 2 (83.3%)
August 7: Raced 5 of 6, including the last 5 straight (83.3%)
August 14: Raced 5 of 6, including the last 2 straight (83.3%)
August 21: Raced 6 of 6 (100%)
August 28: Raced 5 of 6, but rained out the last time scheduled, in 2005 (83.3%)

Despite the fact that two of the only three dates with less than a 50% success rate fall on the calendar this year, I'd say the odds are with us to have a pretty good season. Overall, racing has won out over rain 78.99% of the time, meaning we race approximately four nights for every rainout. Based on those averages, we should be able to get 15 nights of racing in this season. One plus, this year's calendar works in our favor as there are two months with five Saturdays, allowing for a 19th night on the schedule. The schedule will return to 18 nights for each of the next two seasons after this year if races are scheduled in the same patterm.

To expand on the five-week months, there have been 64 racing months with five Saturdays in the past 43 years. Of those 64 months, an amazing 25 of them went completely rain-free. Overall, 320 race nights were scheduled during those months with 205 racing to completion. On average, that means we normally get at least three-plus nights in during a five week month, with the occasional perfect month thrown in the mix.

Okay, enough talk about the weather, it's time to prepare for the weekend's opener. If you're heading to Indee, let's hope there's more than a 33% chance we'll see you there!