As we enter the stretch run of weekly points racing at Independence, I decided to put together some statistics (I know, that's also a stretch) concerning where eventual track champions were positioned in their division point standings heading into the final month of the season. After digging back into my files since I started working at the track in 2000, I decided to look at more than just where drivers were at the end of July... I documented the points leaders at the end of each month from those 10 seasons. After that, I decided to go a little farther back in time to 1989. I did this for two reasons: that's the year the Hobby Stocks started competing... and it's also as far back as my points sheets go.
With that said, I'll give a little overview of the historical patterns at the speedway - some interesting and some, well, probably not that interesting - and then apply them to current points leaders at the track and their chances of finishing out the season on top. Before I continue, at no time are any of these numbers being presented in the hope that I jinx any driver. It's all in good, clean, numerical fun.
Also, I'm including only the current divisions at the speedway that have competed at the track in the past 22 years. Sorry, Pro Stock fans, those numbers are not included in this research as they don't apply to 2010.
Since the start of the 1989 season (21 seasons, not including 2010), there have been 83 calendar months of racing from May through August. (Yes, I lumped the occasional April races in with May since they have been so infrequent.) In a perfect world, there would be 84 months, however there was no racing in May of 2008 following the spring storms that destroyed the grandstands and delayed the start of the season. In that time, there have been 21 complete seasons in the Late Model, Modified and Hobby Stock divisions. There have been 17 seasons for the Stock Cars (their debut was 1993) or 67 months (68 if not for that pesky May of 2008) and two for the SportMods. Again, sorry, B Mod fans of 2004-2007, but those numbers aren't included here, either.
That leaves us with 82 track champions in the past 21 years. Of those 82 champions, 24 of them led at the end of every month of their respective championship seasons en route to the track title. Not too bad of odds - roughly three out of 10. This has happened eight times in the Late Models, four times in the Modifieds, four times in the Stock Cars and four times in the Hobby Stocks. Those drivers, their divisions and the years of their accomplishments are as follows:
LATE MODEL: Curt Martin (1991, 2006), Greg Kastli (1994, 2002, 2003), Rick Wendling (1995, 1996), and Darren Ackerman (2007).
MODIFIED: Jerry Luloff (1999, 2000), Scott Hogan (2003), Darin Duffy (2009).
STOCK CAR: Dan Trimble (1994, 1998, 2000), Jarod Weepie (2005).
HOBBY STOCK: Lon Gadow (1990), Forrest Frost (1992), Scooter Dulin (2001), Patrick Stansbery (2002, 2005), Brian Irvine (2004), Josh Irvine (2007), Chris Luloff (2008).
Keep in mind, this doesn't mean these drivers necessarily led the points every week of the season, but it does mean they were consistent enough to lead the points at the end of every month of the season on their way to a track championship.
The driver who has led at the end of most months in that span? IMCA Stock Car driver Dan Trimble has held the points lead of that division an incredible 28 times at the end of 67 months of Stock Car competition, including nine championships in 17 years. And remember, he had 16 fewer months to work with compared to the other three divisions. By comparison, Curt Martin has been atop the Late Model points at the end of 20 months of competition in the last 21 years.
Speaking of Martin, he does hold a distinction that probably goes farther back in time than I have records. In 2004, Martin ended the month of May sitting 16th in the Late Model points after entirely missing the third night of the season. He emerged as the track champion (well, co-champion with Darren Ackerman) by winning seven of the division's final 12 races that year. His 16th to first jump is the farthest any driver has come in the last 21 years over the final three months to win or share a track championship. I think it's safe to assume it's one of the best leaps in track history.
The most consecutive "end of months" any driver has stayed atop his division's standings in the last 21 years is nine. Late Model driver Greg Kastli holds that distinction from the end of 2001 through the 2003 season. Late Model driver Rick Wendling and Modified pilot Jerry Luloff have held the lead for eight consecutive ends of months. Wendling accomplished that feat during his back-to-back track championships in 1995-1996 and Luloff matched him during his back-to-back titles in 1999-2000.
While some drivers have been quick out of the gate to drive to a championship, some have been slow starters. A total of 24 times (out of those 82 attempts) has an eventual champion not made it to the top of the points until after mid-season.
When you break it down by month, consider this:
MAY: 40 out of 82 champions held the points lead following the first month of the season. Remember, we lose four of these due to the blackeye on May of 2008. Granted, these 40 drivers didn't all lead throughout the entire year, but they stayed within striking distance to pull it off at the end of the season.
JUNE: Only 38 drivers leading at the end of June have gone on to win the title. This means that, somewhere along the line, at least a couple drivers started out hot and cooled off by mid-summer. That means less than half of the mid-season leaders went on to score titles. Kind of surprising, I'd say.
JULY: 52 drivers leading or sharing the points lead at the end of July have gone on to win his division's points title. That sounds pretty impressive if you consider nearly two-thirds of all drivers have sealed the deal over the final few weeks. On the other hand, that means over one-third of those leaders entering the final month didn't get the job done.
One interesting (or maybe not) note is that there have never been different point leaders at the end of every month within any division of any single season. That means, at least one driver in every division of every season for the last 21 years has held the points lead at the end of at least two months.
What does this mean to this year's points leaders now that July is history and August is here?
LATE MODEL: Tyler Bruening... has led at the end of every month so far this season. He will attempt to become the ninth driver in 22 seasons to lead the entire season (at least when the calendar pages turn each month). In fact, Bruening has been the points leader for the last eight weeks. We've raced 10 times so far in 2010. Odds? History says there's a 38% chance Bruening will earn his first track title.
MODIFIED: Troy Cordes... has led at the end of every month so far this season. He will attempt to become just the fifth driver in 22 seasons to lead the entire season. Cordes has held the points lead for the last nine weeks. Odds? History says there's a 19% chance Cordes will earn his third track championship at Independence (although his current point lead may speak differently to that statistic). Coincidentally, Cordes ran in the top two all year during his 2002 championship run. By contrast, in 2008, Cordes won the championship on the final night of the season, so he's proven he can win in extremely opposite ways. By the way, he has not been outside of the top three in points so far this season.
STOCK CAR: Jarod Weepie... took over the points lead in July. He will attempt to become the fifth Stock Car champion to win a title after finding his way to the top after mid-season. The others? Jerry Schipper (1996, 1997), Dan Trimble (2006). The most recent? Jarod Weepie (2008). I guess he's no stranger to pulling out the stops when it matters most. Odds: History says there's a 23.5% chance Weepie will earn his fourth track title.
HOBBY STOCK: Vince Buchholz... also took over the points lead in July. He will try to become the ninth driver in the 22-year history of the division to drive to the track crown after taking over the points lead after mid-season. During his 2003 championship run, Buchholz remained in the top two in the standings throughout the season. Odds? History says there's a 38% chance Buchholz will earn his second track title, although he is currently in the closest points battle at the speedway.
Now that we're actually set to begin the final month of the season, from where is the deepest anyone has come to emerge with a division crown? Nobody has come from deeper than third place in his division's standings in the last 21 years to steal a track championship. A third-to-first run over the final month has happened a total of five times. They are as follows:
LATE MODEL: Darin Burco came from third place at the end of July 2000 to win the division; Darren Ackerman also did it in 2004. Keep in mind, that was the same year Martin came from 16th at the end of May to earn co-champion honors with Ackerman. Coincidentally, Martin sat second in points entering August that year.
MODIFIED: Tom Bartholomew went from third to first in the final month of the 1991 season.
STOCK CAR: Brian Irvine went from third to first in 2009.
HOBBY STOCK: Jeff Roete went from third to first in 2000.
An interesting note on the Irvine and Roete accomplishments; they actually led the points frequently throughout the first half of their respective seasons only to falter in July, then rebound to earn championship honors.
Justy so you don't have to flip to the points on the track web site, here are the current top three in each division entering the final month with total points in parentheses:
LATE MODEL: Tyler Bruening (380), Darren Ackerman (364), Curt Martin (351).
MODIFIED: Troy Cordes (367), Jerry Luloff (336), Darin Duffy (310).
STOCK CAR: Jarod Weepie (366), Sean Johnson (354), Dan Trimble and Norman Chesmore (tied at 352).
HOBBY STOCK: Vince Buchholz (341), Rod Grother (339), Jamie Whitaker (335).
SPORTMOD: Austin Kaplan (358), Joel Rust (330), Josh Sherbon (326).
If anyone is positioned well to defeat history and come from deeper than third in the final month to win a championship, Hobby Stock driver Justin Hanson is the guy to keep an eye on. Sitting fourth in that division's standings, Hanson is only 11 points out of the lead.
That's enough rambling for now. Be sure to submit your results for this week's fantasy race on the Independence Motor Speedway facebook page! The Hobby Stock feature is in full swing and over 100 results have already been submitted. Your results may be submitted until the noon deadline on Thursday. The Stock Car fantasy feature will take the green on Friday!
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