Track championship scenarios for Independence Motor Speedway

Of all the stats I put together during the course of the season, the Independence Motor Speedway track championship scenarios provide some of the more interesting numbers.

While the traditional list of things "this driver must do" and "that driver must do" to win a track title is always fun to put together, this year it has provided an interesting mix. It ranges from the typical runaway divisions where all a driver needs to do is take the green flag on championship night to take the crown, to one driver already locking up his championship with one week to go, to a couple of very interesting close battles that may ultimately be decided by the use of tie-breakers. While tie-breakers are rarely used at the track level, should they need to be implemented this season, it could make for a very intriguing championship night. 

POINTS STRUCTURE
Before looking at a division-by-division breakdown, I'll go over the points structure so it's easier to understand once I get into the specifics of each division. For those who may not be up to speed on how points are awarded, all divisions in Independence are IMCA sanctioned and all divisions are awarded points in the same manner. The winner of the feature receives 40 points, then dropping by one point per position through 24th place in the final running order. This means second place gets 39 points, third gets 38 and so on. If more than 24 cars start the A-main, every driver who finishes 24th or worse receives 17 points. In the end, the greatest number of points you can gain (or lose) in feature competition is 23. (Insert Jim Carrey movie reference here.)

All drivers must take the green flag in a competitive event in order to receive any points. This means if a driver never makes it off the trailer or blows up in hot laps and does not compete, they get no points for that night. In short, show-up points are not awarded. Since we are running features only on Saturday, it is essential that a driver takes the green flag in the feature if he or she expects to receive any points.

I won't get into the points structure for B features since the points earned by drivers in those races, if needed, will not affect the drivers competing for track titles on Saturday. 

TIE-BREAKERS
Tie-breakers are simple. If two drivers end the season with the same number of points, the driver with the most 40-point feature wins will be declared the track champion. If the tied drivers have the same number of 40-point feature wins, the tie-breaker moves to the most second place finishes. If that still doesn't break the tie, it goes to most third place finishes and so on until the tie is broken and a champion is declared. Keep this in mind as this is where things may get interesting in a couple of our divisions in Indee.

Okay, onto the division breakdowns... 

IMCA STOCK CAR
Let's get the easy stuff out of the way. First off, congratulations to IMCA Stock Car driver Sean Johnson on already clinching his second straight points championship. With a 59 point lead entering the final night of racing, Johnson has wrapped up the Stock Car title. Since a win is worth 40 points, Johnson doesn't even have to get out of bed on Saturday to be awarded his championship trophy at the November 17 awards banquet. (Did you get that? Saturday, November 17 is the 2012 awards banquet at the Buchanan County Fairgrounds 4-H Building. More info will follow in the coming weeks.) 

IMCA LATE MODEL
Tyler Bruening needs only to take the green flag in Saturday's feature to earn his second Late Model title in the last three seasons. With a 35 point lead over Dean Wagner and a 36 point lead over Curt Martin, the guaranteed 17 points Bruening would earn by starting the feature is enough to win the title.

For some reason, if Bruening is unable to start the feature, Wagner would need to finish no worse than sixth (35 points) and within one spot of Martin to win the title. Martin, on the other hand, would need to finish in the top four and beat Wagner by two spots on the track to win the title.

As it stands, in the event of a tie, Wagner holds the tie-breaker with both Martin and Bruening while Bruening holds the head-to-head tie-breaker with Martin. Wagner has three wins, Bruening two and Martin one.

Should Bruening not start the feature AND Wagner finish seventh or worse AND Martin finish fifth or worse, Bruening would still win the title.

Having fun yet? 

IMCA SPORTMOD
Danny Dvorak is in a very similar situation in the SportMod division. With a 26 point lead over Dave Schulze and a 32 point lead over Jim Buhlman, Dvorak needs only to take the green flag to win the track championship.

In the event that Dvorak is unable to start the feature, Schulze would need to finish 14th or better and no worse than five positions behind Buhlman to win the title. Buhlman, on the other hand, would need to finish in the top eight AND beat Schulze by at least six positions to win the crown.

Of the three drivers still mathematically alive to win the title, Dvorak is the only one with a feature win so he holds all tie-breakers. When it comes to tie-breakers specifically between Schulze and Buhlman, Buhlman holds the edge as he has more second place finishes than Schulze (two to one).

Headache? It gets better... 

IMCA HOBBY STOCK
The Hobby Stock division is one of three that has been close at the top of the standings all season. Both points leader Justin Stander and Benji Irvine are in search of their first career track titles. Only 11 points separate the two drivers as they enter championship night. The easy thing about this division is one of these two drivers WILL be the 2012 IMCA Hobby Stock champion. No other driver in the division is mathematically alive to win the title.

With that said, Stander holds the edge in the standings, but in the event of a tie, he does not hold the tie-breaker. To avoid any extra math Saturday night, a top-11 finish (30+ points) will guarantee Stander his first track title. If he does not finish in the top 11, Stander has to finish within 10 spots of Irvine in the feature to clinch the championship.

Irvine, on the other hand, has to beat Stander by at least 11 spots in the feature. In the instance of a tie in the final standings, Irvine and Stander have each earned two wins and two second place finishes. Irvine holds the tie-breaker with four third place finishes to no third place finishes for Stander. This means Irvine needs to gain "only" the 11 points he trails Stander and does not have to "pass" him in the final standings to win the title.

Oh, it gets worse... 

IMCA MODIFIED
The closest battle at the track this season entering championship night is in the IMCA Modified division. Mark Schulte and Ronn Lauritzen have been within single digits of each other at the top of the standings throughout most of the season and it will all come down to Saturday's finale.

As it stands now, Schulte leads Lauritzen by two points, however the tie-breakers are still very much up in the air.

First, here's a look at what needs to happen assuming there are no ties at the end of Saturday...
* If Schulte beats Lauritzen on the track, he will also wear the division crown.
* If Schulte finishes second, he will win the points title regardless if Lauritzen wins the feature.
* In the event that he does not beat Lauritzen, Schulte would need to finish no worse than one spot behind Lauritzen to win the title.
* Lauritzen needs to beat Schulte by three spots to win the title.

Should Lauritzen beat Schulte by exactly two positions in Saturday's feature, there will be a tie in the final standings and it... gets... messy.

The top-4 finishes Schulte and Lauritzen have earned this season are near mirror images of each other. In the event of a tie, the tie-breaker may not be determined until the checkers wave Saturday night. As it stands now, the numbers of top-four finishes for each driver are listed below: 

Finishes - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Schulte - 1 - 3 - 3 - 2
Lauritzen  1 - 2 - 3 - 4

Now, the scenarios in the event of a tie in the final standings...
* Should Lauritzen win and Schulte get third, Lauritzen would win the title by virtue of his two wins to Schulte's one win.
* Should Lauritzen finish second and Schulte get fourth, the number of first, second and third place finishes for each driver would be identical. That would take the tie-breaker clear down to fourth place finishes. In that instance, Lauritzen would win the title with four fourth place finishes to Schulte's three.
* If neither driver finishes in the top two, but Lauritzen beats Schulte by exactly two spots in the feature, Schulte would win the tie-breaker by virtue of his three second place finishes to Lauritzen's two.

Of course, in the rare instance that neither Schulte nor Lauritzen start the feature, there's an outside chance that one other driver could win the track title - defending track champion Adam Johnson. If neither Schulte nor Lauritzen take the green, Johnson can win the division by finishing sixth or better in the feature. Johnson owns all tie-breakers by virtue of his six feature wins.

Can you handle one more? 

IMCA SPORT COMPACT
The Sport Compact division is not only in its first season in Independence, but barely into it second month. There have been five track points races for the division this year and, based on average car count, two drivers remain in the hunt for the title.

Merv Chandler currently leads Steve Miedke by three points at the top of the standings. While Travis Ross and A.J. Witten are still mathematically alive, it would take more than 20 entries for them to have even an outside chance at winning the title. Since we've averaged right at nine Sport Compacts per night in Independence, I'll take the odds that either Chandler or Miedke will be crowned the first Sport Compact champion at the track.

For Chandler, a top-three finish would clinch the title. Otherwise, Chandler would need to finish no more than two positions behind Miedke on Saturday to take the championship. Miedke would need to beat Chandler by three spots in Saturday's feature to win the title.

The tie-breaker in the Sport Compact division will be determined a little differently than in the other divisions. It isn't because the rules are different, but because car count affects how the tie-breaker is applied. As I mentioned earlier, the number of "40-point feature wins" determines the tie-breaker. IMCA dictates that 10 cars are required to compete in a division on a given race night in order for the full 40 point winner's share to be awarded. In the event that fewer than 10 cars are entered, the number of points awarded are lowered accordingly. For instance, if only nine cars earn points on a given night, the winner's share is 39 points. The drop-off remains the same at one point per position in the feature. That means second place would receive 38, third place 37 and so on. If only seven cars earn points on a given night, the winner's share is 37, then 36 for second, 35 for third, etc. In essence, the number of points a winner receives on a night the car count is less than 10 equals 30 points plus one point for each car eligible to earn points.

Through five nights of weekly racing, Independence has seen one 40-point feature for the Sport Compacts. That winner, on July 7, was Steve Miedke. This means Miedke holds the tie-breaker if it's needed.

Based on recent history at the speedway, it's unlikely that we'll have to dig too deep into the tie-breaker procedures to determine the 2012 champions. In case we do though, you can follow along from the stands.

I don't want to jinx anyone, but in case you're wondering how drivers have fared on championship night in recent history, here's one more tidbit of information. Dating back 10 years, of the last 50 track champions to be crowned, only twice has a driver lost the points lead and title on the final night of racing. Being the pole-sitter on Saturday night tends to be a good thing.

Now, it's time to head to the dentist for a root canal. No lie. I think that will be less painful than trying to understand what I just wrote. Again, no lie.

Thanks for reading!