Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Sprints, stats and more as Independence season approaches

Monday night, the Independence city council approved street closures for the annual car show to be held in downtown Independence on Saturday, April 20. It will be the fourth straight year for the show on 1st St., which has grown each year since its inception. Along with the car show, the annual test and tune is scheduled at the track that afternoon from 2-5 p.m.

Prior to the busy Saturday, however, the first race of the season at Independence Motor Speedway will be held the night before on Friday, April 19. The track's first-ever Open Wheel Shootout will feature the Brockway Mechanical & Roofing Sprint Invaders Series, along with Modifieds and SportMods. The Mods and SportMods will run regular track rules, however will NOT be IMCA sanctioned. Consider it an early practice with purse money at stake.

Details of the entire weekend's events are available at www.independencemotorspeedway.com.

The last couple weeks I've been researching (well, trying) the last time Sprint Cars competed in Independence. Unfortunately, I was unable to find results or even the race date. I remember attending the event in the 1990s when Jerry Blue promoted the race track, however the details of the event continue to escape me. If any readers have any information or knowledge on that event, please let me know by e-mailing indeeracing@yahoo.com.

The weekly wars in Independence are set to begin the following Saturday, April 27. The six classes that competed with us last season - IMCA-sanctioned Late Models, Modifieds, Stock Cars, SportMods, Hobby Stocks and Sport Compacts - will again comprise the weekly program in 2013.

Every spring, it's an uncertainty what tracks will see as far as car counts and crowds. I think tracks will be pleasantly surprised with the number of fans that make their way through the gates and, ironically, I think the long-lasting winter weather will benefit everyone.

I don't know about anyone else, but I've become motivated to get out and enjoy time outdoors this year even more than in recent years. I think a lot of that has to do with the mild winters we've experienced recently. Last year, for instance, we experienced spring and summer-like temperatures as early as February and March. By the time racing season came around, the enthusiasm was there, but I don't believe it was to the same degree as it is this year. Let's hope we all cure our spring fever with visits to area race tracks.

As far as car counts are concerned, I remain very optimistic about the outlook at Independence this season. Not only do I have a dozen more driver registrations in hand this year than I did on this date last year, but the names on those registration forms make me even more anxious for the season to start. Based on the drivers who have indicated plans to join us weekly, I think our field of cars will be nothing short of stellar in 2013.

As of today, 20 IMCA Late Model drivers and 20 IMCA Modifieds have pre-registered, which is a pretty hefty number for those divisions at this time of year. Big numbers in the remaining four divisions have also already registered for the upcoming season.

FYI - All pit stalls in the front two rows are already reserved. Those are rows A and B, which are the rows next to staging and the row containing the concession stand and parts trailer. If you still need a pit stall, get in touch with me ASAP to make arrangements.

By the way, we are also still searching for a track photographer for 2013. A few folks have expressed interest, but we have yet to find someone able to join us for the upcoming season. If you or someone you know is interested, please e-mail me at indeeracing@yahoo.com.

INDEPENDENCE MOTOR SPEEDWAY / OPENING NIGHT TRENDS
With the points opener just over a month away, below are a few trends, statistics and other things to watch as the season approaches. Like my preview for Benton County Speedway, I'll break it down by division to make it easier for you to navigate to your favorite divisions.

Keep in mind, all information below includes opening night points races and does not include special/non-points events. They also include Independence stats only. When referring to first-time winners, it indicates first-time winners at Independence without regard to possible earlier wins at other tracks.

LATE MODEL
My records for the Late Model division date back to the start of the 1967 season, a couple of years after the track opened for stock car racing. The division has been IMCA sanctioned every year since 1987, expect one. For inquiring minds, the division was unsanctioned in 1997 when the spec engine was introduced. Promoter Jerry Blue opted to sit out a year to see how the new engine rule would affect the class. He signed back on in 1998 and the division has remained sanctioned since that time.

In the last 46 years, 21 different drivers have won opening night features. The all-time leader is Curt Martin, who has won an astounding 14 opening night features (1984, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2012). Ed Sanger is second on that list with four opening night wins (1971, 1974, 1978, 1981).

Glen Martin, Bill Barthelmes and Rick Wendling have each earned three opening night wins. Gary Crawford, Greg Hunter and Greg Kastli have earned two apiece.

One-time opening night winners include Red Droste, Chub Liebe, Dave Trower, Tom Fitzpatrick, Doc Mayner, Gary Henderson, Jeff Aikey, Red Dralle, Dean Wagner, Darren Ackerman, Rob Toland, Travis Smock and Tyler Bruening.

Twelve times a driver has won the opening night feature the year after winning the season championship feature the year before. Curt Martin has done it six times and Ed Sanger four times. Red Droste, Rick Wendling, Darren Ackerman and Tyler Bruening have each done it once. If you recall, last year's championship night was rained out and rescheduled after the points season ended for the Late Models, meaning there was no championship night winner last year. That means this list will remain unchanged in 2013.

In the last 46 years, only 11 times has the opening night Late Model feature winner gone on to win the track championship. Those 11 times consist of only four drivers. Curt Martin has won seven opening night features on his way to track title honors (1984, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2006), while Rick Wendling did it twice (1995, 1996). Red Droste (1968) and Ed Sanger (1971) are the other two.

IMCA MODIFIED
The Modified division has competed every year since 1983 and has been IMCA sanctioned every season. This season will be the 31st consecutive with IMCA Modifieds in Independence, the longest-running sanctioned division at any track in the country.

In its 30 years, the IMCA Modifieds have produced an amazing 27 different opening night winners in Independence. Only Vern Jackson (2001, 2003, 2008) and Steve Droste (1995, 1996) have won multiple opening night features in track history. In chronological order, the other 25 are Jack Mitchell, Mike Krall, Tom Fitzpatrick, Greg Kastli, Todd Jensen, Craig Haupt, Kevin Pittman, John Irwin, Larry Schmidt, Deon Turner, Tim Donlinger, Duane Van Deest, Travis Heyer, Jerry Luloff, Garry Stuber, Troy Cordes, Jerry King, Scott Hogan, Joey Schaefer, Jason Snyder, J.D. Auringer, Max Corporon, Richie Gustin, Mike Burbridge and Mark Schulte. How's that for a who's who of Modified talent?

Dating back to 2003, there have been nine straight different opening night winners. Jackson (2003, 2008) was the most recent to repeat and is the only driver with more than one opening night win in the last 17 years.

Of the drivers listed above, only Droste, Hogan and Jackson won opening night features the year after winning on season championship night the year before. That's only 1 in 10 odds for last year's championship night winner, Darin Duffy. Surprisingly, Duffy, who is the all-time leading feature winner in Modified division history at Independence, has never won on opening night.

To get way off course and take that a step further, of the 16 different drivers who have won IMCA Modified track titles in Independence, five never won an opening night event in their careers. Joining Duffy on that list are Mark Noble, Owen Grube, Adam Johnson and Tom Bartholomew. Duffy and Johnson have the chance to remove their names from that list in 2013.

It's crazy to think, but Bartholomew, who was the track champion for four consecutive years from 1989-1992, never won an opening night feature in his career despite the fact that 17 of his 22 wins in Independence came during that four year span. During his four year run as track champ, Bartholomew won only one feature before the sixth week of any of those seasons. That win came during the second week of the 1990 season. His first win in 1989 came in week six, his first of 1991 came in week seven and his first of 1992 came in week 11. As dominant as Bartholomew was, he never led a season's standings from beginning to end.

Six drivers earned track titles the same season they won on opening night and Steve Droste (1995, 1996) is the only one to do it twice. Others include Jack Mitchell (1983), Greg Kastli (1986), Craig Haupt (1988), J.D. Auringer (2007) and Mark Schulte (2012).

If you're a Modified driver with lofty goals, only six times in track history has a Modified driver gone on to win the track title the same year as his first win in weekly points racing in the division. The first five drivers on that list include Jack Mitchell (1983, the first year anyone won a weekly Modified points race in Independence), Duane Van Deest (1985), Greg Kastli (1986), Mark Noble (1987) and Craig Haupt (1988).

After a 24 year break, the trend was broken when Mark Schulte earned the track title in 2012 after earning his first Modified win in weekly racing in Independence the same season. Schulte won an Indee Open Modified feature at the speedway on August 2, 2006, but his win on May 5, 2012, was his first weekly points win in track history. To take that a step further, Mitchell, Kastli, Haupt and Schulte are the only Modified drivers in track history to earn their first-ever wins on opening night and earn track championship honors the same season.

All-time, Modified drivers who earned their first Independence wins on opening night include Mitchell, Kastli, Haupt, Irwin, Donlinger, Heyer, Gustin, Burbridge and Schulte. Those odds say there is a 30% chance that this year's opening night Mod winner will be a first-time visitor to victory lane.

STOCK CAR
The Stock Cars have competed in Independence since 1993. They ran unsanctioned that first season, but have been IMCA sanctioned every year since 1994, marking 2013 as the 20th season for IMCA sanctioned Stock Cars in Independence.

In the previous 20 seasons, 12 different Stock Car drivers made it to victory lane on opening night. Leading the way is Dan Trimble, who earned five opening night wins (1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2006). Brian Irvine has won three times (2005, 2007, 2009), while Larry Portis (1995, 1996) and Tom Schmitt (2003, 2004) have each won twice. Other opening night Stock Car winners include Lon Gadow, Ken Irvine, Jarod Weepie, Fabian Seitz, Norman Chesmore, Justin Temeyer, Sean Johnson and Phil Holtz.

Only five times has a driver won on opening night after a season championship feature win the year before. Dan Trimble did it three times, while Larry Portis and Brian Irvine each did it once. Sean Johnson has the opportunity to add his name to that exclusive list this spring.

Compared to other divisions, the odds are fairly decent for the opening night Stock Car winner to go on and win the track title. Although only five drivers have done it, they did it a total of nine times in 20 years. Dan Trimble again tops the list as he won both the opening night feature and points title in 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2006, meaning every time he won on opening night he won the points. Lon Gadow (1993), Larry Portis (1995), Brian Irvine (2009) and Sean Johnson (2011) are the others to do it.

Only five times has a driver earned his first career Stock Car win during opening night action. They include Lon Gadow (1993), Dan Trimble (1994), Larry Portis (1995), Fabian Seitz (2002) and Brian Irvine (2005). Only three of those drivers (Gadow, Trimble and Portis) went on to record track titles the same season.

HOBBY STOCK
The Hobby Stocks have been competing in Independence since 1989. They were IMCA sanctioned for separate one-year stints in 1990 and again in 1994. The division has been sanctioned every year since 2002. In 2013, the speedway will crown its 25th Hobby Stock champion.

Much like the Modifieds, the Hobby Stocks have seen a variety of winners on opening night. In 24 seasons, 22 different drivers have taken the checkered flag on the first night of action and only Lon Gadow (1990, 1991) and Chris Wessner (1995, 1996) have done it twice. One-time season opener winners, in chronological order, include Ken Irvine, Forrest Frost, Rick Johnson, Kevin Hoehne, Jason Rohde, Danny Dvorak, Doug Otto, Jeff Roete, Patrick Stansbery, John Meyer, J.R. Kahler, Brian Irvine, Josh Steere, Rod Grother, Micheal Smith, Chris Luloff, Josh Irvine, August Bach, Scott Pippert and Nathan Ballard. Dating back to 1996, we have seen 17 straight different opening night winners in the division.

Of those opening night winners, nine went on to win track title honors the same season. They include Gadow (1990), Frost (1992), Hoehne (1994), Wessner (1995), Otto (1999), Roete (2000), Brian Irvine (2004), Luloff (2008) and Josh Irvine (2009).

Of the 22 opening night winners listed above, six enjoyed their first-ever trips to Independence victory lane on opening night. They were Ken Irvine (1989), Rohde (1997), Dvorak (1998), Otto (1999), Steere (2005) and Smith (2007). That leaves Doug Otto as the only Hobby Stock driver in track history to earn his first career win in Independence on opening night and go on to win the track title the same season.

Only four times has the previous year's season championship feature winner gone on to win the opening night event that next year. Chris Wessner did it twice, while Patrick Stansbery and Brian Irvine each did it once. Justin Stander has the opportunity to join that list in 2013.

IMCA SPORTMOD
The IMCA SportMods joined the weekly program in 2008. This season will be the division's sixth in Independence.

Despite its short history, the SportMods have produced four different opening night winners in five seasons. Josh Sherbon (2008, 2009) leads the way with two, while Austin Lucas, Tyler Droste and Austin Kaplan have earned one each. For Sherbon (2008) and Lucas (2010), those wins were also their first wins in Independence.

Only Tyler Droste (2011) has won the track title after making his way to victory lane on opening night. His opening night win in 2011 also marked the only time in division history that a driver's opening night win followed a season championship feature win the previous year. Danny Dvorak can become the second on that list this spring.

IMCA SPORT COMPACT
Steve Miedke was the track's first-ever feature winner last season. After winning on June 23 during a trial run for the division, Miedke won the first official track points race for the division on July 7. Merv Chandler was the track champion and Brad Chandler won on season championship night. In short, the division's history is far too short to have established any trends... yet. 

WAIT, THERE'S MORE...
That will take care of the division-by-division breakdown for Independence, but there are also a few all-inclusive numbers worth a mention.

Since 1981, there have been 111 opening night feature events for the Late Model, Modified, Stock Car, Hobby Stock and SportMod divisions. Of the 111 winners of those events, 36 went on to win track titles that same year. That means there's a 32.4% chance that someone who stands in victory lane on opening night will also be giving a speech at the awards banquet this fall.

At the end of last season, I included the rainout trends for the upcoming season at Independence. All of that info was based on calendar date patterns through the years. While it probably felt like an eternity in waiting back then, we're now just one month away from the new season. Rather than looking back, here is what I wrote last September concerning what may be in store weather-wise for 2013.

RAINOUT TRENDS
Since 1967, there have been a total of 831 weekly events scheduled in Independence from the last Saturday in April through the final Saturday in August. Of those 831 race nights, 176 were canceled. The monthly breakdown is as follows:
April: 13 rainouts in 27 events for a 51.9% success rate
May: 67 rainouts in 204 events for a 67.2% success rate
June: 37 rainouts in 197 events for an 81.2% success rate
July: 28 rainouts in 204 events for an 86.3% success rate
August: 31 events in 199 events for an 84.4% success rate

April: 7.4% of all rainouts
May: 38.1% of all rainouts
June: 21.0% of all rainouts
July: 15.9% of all rainouts
August: 17.6% of all rainouts

When considering the season in separate halves, where May and June comprise the first half of the season and July and August are the second half (I omitted April and September since they account for so few of the overall events), there have been 104 rainouts in 401 events scheduled for the first half of the season, whereas there have only been 59 rainouts in 403 events scheduled for the second half of the season. That means, historically, 63.8% of all rainouts have come during the first half of the season, nearly twice as many as in the second half.

When you consider the date range mentioned above, three to seven races have been scheduled at the speedway on each calendar date over the past 46 years. The most rainouts for a single date in the last 46 years is four - only May 7, May 17, May 22 and June 2 hold that dubious distinction. While no date has rained out every year, there are 30 dates that have never rained out at all and six of them are on this year's schedule.

Below are the dates for scheduled weekly racing events in Independence in 2013. Listed with those dates are their rainout trends over the last 46 years:
April 27: 2 successful shows in 3 attempts (66.6% success rate)
May 4: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
May 11: 4 for 6 (66.6%)
May 18: 4 for 6 (66.6%)
May 25: 4 for 6 (66.6%)
June 1: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
June 8: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
June 15: 6 for 6 (100%)
June 22: 6 for 6 (100%)
June 29: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
July 6: 6 for 6 (100%)
July 13: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
July 20: 6 for 6 (100%)
July 27: 4 for 6 (66.6%)
August 3: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
August 10: 5 for 6 (83.3%)
August 17: 6 for 6 (100%)
August 24: 6 for 6 (100%)

Years when the above dates have fallen on the schedule, the track averages 2.3 rainouts for the season, meaning 2013 could be a dryer than average season. Afterall, the average number of weekly races completed per season over the last 46 years is 14.63 out of an average of 18.1 scheduled. That means the dates that fall on the schedule in 2013 result in one fewer rainout than an average season.

There are 130 dates included on the range from April 24 through August 31. Of those, 24 have a success rate of less than 66.6%. Remarkably, none of those dates fall on the weekly racing schedule for 2013. That should bode well for the upcoming season, shouldn't it? Can you tell I'm trying to convince myself that the lingering winter weather will step aside for an excellent racing season? I sure hope that's the case because six of those historically rainy dates are on the projected schedule for 2014.

That will take care of the statistical preview for Independence. With those numbers out of the way, it's time to go racing. I plan to be at Benton County Speedway in Vinton on Sunday for the season-opening Spring Shakedown. Weather permitting, I may also make the trip to 34 Raceway in Burlington for the first Sprint Invaders show of the season on Saturday. The season opener is also planned for Friday night at Lee County Speedway in Donnellson, so who knows? If Mother Nature is forgiving, it may be a full weekend for racing in eastern Iowa. To stay current on racing events in the Midwest this season, be sure to bookmark the Positively Racing events calendar.

Regardless where or when you're able to go, be sure to get out and support a track near you. I'll see you at the races!

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